Daily Blog • November 6th


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS 22-13 L/3 Weeks
CHICAGO AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 139
118
19
2.5
#8
BUFFALO 124
180
18
2.6
#14

This game will be played in Toronto and will be not be a true BUF homefield advantage. Bears OC Martz has said he will try to run more going up against the Bills 3-4 defense. Former SD LB Merriman who Buffalo just acquired this week did not report till yesterday and will not play here. Bills QB Fitzpatrick has done an outstanding job since taking over the top spot but on defense the Bills only have 1 interception this year and it is by a LB (Andra Davis) and he is out with a shoulder injury. One key matchup here will be Bills going with undrafted FA Cord Howard at RT vs Julius Peppers. Advantage Bears!

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 27 BUFFAL0 24

 

NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 127
240
25
2.0
#15
CAROLINA 103
190
16
2.8
#17

Fox/Payton caoched together on the NYG Super Bowl run a few years back and Fox is 6-3 vs Payton and the Panthers always play him and the Saints tough including earlier this year. The CAR D is good but not as good as their ranking as opponents have had short fields due to the Panthers' offense having 23 giveaways. The Saints will get both starting CB’s back here and Bush and Thomas have been gone long enough for the offense to adapt. QB Brees knee is better than expected and they should cruise here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 CAROLINA 13

 

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 67
243
16
2.1
#21
ATLANTA 178
260
33
1.6
#13

TB 5-2 w/ their 5 wins coming over teams that are 12-25.
QB Freeman is rapidly becoming a rising NFL star with his comeback wins but ATL is 16-1 at home with their QB Ryan. The Falcons defense is going to be 100% here while the Bucs 1st two draft picks of McCoy/Price areboth beatup with Price going on IR with a hip injury. TB is giving up 149 rush ypg (5.2) while Atlanta is avg 137 ypg (4.2) and RB Turner is returning back to elite form. With TB on the road for a 2nd str week, Can Freeman pull another 4Q comeback?

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 20 TAMPA BAY 13

 

NEW ENGLAND AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ENGLAND 113
235
27
1.3
#8
CLEVELAND 106
255
21
2.4
#11

Belichick is 5-2 vs Mangini whose biggest upset of NE was coming off a bye. CLE QB McCoy is getting the start here and has shown great poise but Belichick is solid against rookie QB's. NE is 28th in yds but have held foes to 20 or less in 4 str gms. CLE has overachieved despite their record as shown by upsetting the Saints before the bye. NE has much more speed than CLE's offense and Holmgren comments in several interviews have firmly put OC Daboll in the cross-hairs. Belichicks's would love to humiliate his former asst's in their own house.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 24 CLEVELAND 17

 

KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 190
96
18
1.2
#4
OAKLAND 175
218
24
1.2
#17

Raiders are .500 in November for the first time since 2002 and this is the most important game in the series since the 90s. It’s refreshing to see such a storied history have meaning in the AFC West again. KC has rushed for 200 yds in 3 str gms while Raiders RB McFadden leads the NFL with 111 ypg TY. KC’s defense is very simple and straightforward with their speed and athleticism making up for youthful mistakes. OAK’s offense has had the luxury of facing two beat-up defenses to get their 500 yds each week. The Chiefs have won 7 str in the Black Hole and CB Asomugha is very ? with an ankle sprain. I think the Chiefs coaching staff will be the key difference with 2H adjustments as OAK still isn’t settled on defense as they have a 14-4 TD-Int.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 20 OAKLAND 17

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 74
263
28
2.0
#30
PHILADELPHIA 137
230
23
1.9
#16

Reid is 11-0 after a bye and Vick is the starter here. The Eagles are in a great situation getting INDY at home after a short week after MNF. The Colts are very beat-up and RB’s Addai and Hart are expected to miss. WR Collie will return but Gonzalez is expected to miss 4 weeks. PHI's crowd noise and Vick’s maneuverability will minimize Freeney and Mathis and LT Peters out last two games is back as well. PHI pass def is giving up just 54% comp rate and has 11 int and should hold their own against Manning.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHIladelphia 21 INDy 17

 

 

SAN DIEGO AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 92
323
32
1.8
#32
HOUSTON 103
275
29
1.3
#22

The key question in this game is the health of SD TE Gates. The Chargers have a bye on deck and both of Gates' feet are injured. He was in a cart watching practice on Wednesday but Gates is a player that doesn’t need practice but you still have to consider him a longshot to play. The Chargers are already without its top 3 WR’s but HOU has the NFL’s worst pass D and SD QB Rivers has been unbelievable TY considering the injuries. HOU proved they couldn’t complete LW in a big game and they have big gms on deck HOU WR Andre Johnson (left ankle sprain) is expected to play but it won't be enough.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 34 HOUSTON 24

ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 53
155
14
3.0
#12
MINNESOTA 175
215
32
2.5
#10

The Cards are going to start Derek Anderson here and want to minimize his impact by running the ball but RB Wells injured his knee again LW. AZ defense is healthy outside of LB Haggans. MIN is reeling from the Moss fiasco and via their defense have been heavily criticized for only having 6 sks this year (1 every 39 pass attempts). This is partially due to QBs taking 3-5 steps drop and the Vikings CBs have been beat up with injury. On offense WR Harvin is very ? due to ankle sprain. This game will likely be decided by Anderson’s mistakes, and the Vikings short passing game with Shiancoe.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 37 ARIZONA 16

NY JETS AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 143
198
24
1.6
#4
DETROIT 87
173
23
3.0
#3

After LW’s shutout loss NYJ HC Rex Ryan taunted the Lions by saying they won’t score anywhere near their 37.7 ppg at home. Despite all the Jets preseason hype, the Lions have more sacks (23 to 15) and more interceptions (8 to 5) than the Jets at this point. The Jets D is 100% and will matchup well with Calvin Johnson. Lions QB Stafford only had a 4.9 pass ypa LW as Schwartz wanted him to use the short passing game to get him up to speed. The Lions are not LY’s pushover but like many young teams are better at home. The real key for the Jets is if Sanchez with his NFL low 53% comp rate for starters can do enough to keep the run game on track 153 ypg (4.8) and the Lions are giving up 130 (4.9).

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 24 DETROIT 13

MIAMI AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 115
248
20
1.9
#30
BALTIMORE 122
243
25
1.1
#24

Ravens OC Cam Cameron’s 3rd shot at his former team (2-0). Baltimore is off a bye and is very focused after giving up 34 pts to the Bills. While they are 100% healthy their secondary has not looked good its last 3 games. Giving up 290+ yds in each of them. Miami is TY’s best road team 4-0. By playing disciplined ball and keeping mistakes to a minimum however Carpenter has hit 10 FG’s the L/2 weeks means their red zone offense is struggling. This will be a tougher than expected game for the Ravens as the Dolphins have momentum and Marshall matches up well with their secondary but the Ravens get the win at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: baltimore 17 miami 16

NY GIANTS AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 145
285
28
2.6
#29
SEATTLE 65
161
19
2.2
#5

Despite the Seahwaks Quest field advantage this could get ugly real quick. 9 of their 22 starters from last week wont play or will be game time decisions incl QB Hasselbeck. They lost their best DT Bryant and RG Hamilton last week. SEA could have #3 LT Pitts who wasn’t expected to play football at all this year due to a leg injury protecting QB Whitehurst in his first ever NFL start. The Giants will be w/out C O’Hara but backup tackle Koets hs started four games for him this year. Most of the key players on offense have played at Quest field before. The long road trip plus the bye will have the Giants offense starting slowly but the only real ? will be whether the Giants knock out their 6th QB of the year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 24 SEATTLE 17